Game(week) 7 Preview

What’d We Miss?

Since our last post (things got busy at YKSC headquarters, ok?), a few things have happened… The Eddies have been eliminated, Pacific beat Cavs and then lost to Ottawa (?), Halifax kept themselves in the second round picture with a huge win over Valour, there was a OneSoccer-stoked controversy around Forge’s U-21 minutes, and best of all - we won a decent chunk of cash from our picks last weekend.

All of this has set up a final weekend of the first round-robin that even the CanPL’s biggest puppet master couldn’t have predicted. With Forge locked in and Edmonton locked out, all of the other six teams will see their future determined in the next two days.

Gruntled Thoughts

• Game 7 Drama: the league couldn’t have planned it any better. With 3 spots in the next round still up for grabs, and 6 teams fighting for them, it’s a far cry from last year’s fall season when we all knew it would be Cavs and Forge in the final for about 6 weeks before the season ended. From an entertainment standpoint, it couldn’t get any better than this for the league, and having heavyweights Cavalry and York facing each other only adds to it.
  

• Goals: there’s only been one 0-0 draw so far at the Island Games (and there were only 8 all of last year - not too bad) which is impressive given the amount of games in such a short period. The amount of late goals in the tournament has also been discussed at length, and this has only added to the entertainment value. Hopefully the teams can keep this up through the next few rounds.

Disgruntled Thoughts

The whole U-21 minute fiasco needs to be looked at after the season. Listen, we’re not going to get into this any more than needed, and we’re not calling for heads to roll in Hamilton. But it’s strange to have a OneSoccer pundit trying to smooth over the situation for Forge (recall it was OneSoccer that preemptively raised the punishment in the first place). Platt correctly noted that Cavalry and Pacific both also only have 3 U-21 players on their Island Games squads, but ignored the fact that both clubs actually use them, and went on to coddle Smyrniotis’ stance on youth development because of, presumably, his prior club. Then Kwame Awuah got upset on Twitter, when really, people just want transparency from the league. We’e guessing Baj Maan and Monti Mohsen are healthy, and this will all be a moot point by the end of the day.

Isn’t it something that Mista comes in with no first-team management experience to a new team in a new country, and has slapped together a squad that Canadian ‘experts’ figured would finish last, and yet here we are? Ottawa as a club was announced in late January, had no players until March, and had only 14 players total until late June. And yet, in PEI they’ve beaten Cavalry and Pacific - two of the consensus top-4 picks - and find themselves on the last day of the first round robin with a decent chance of moving on. This despite a paper-thin squad that has seen multiple suspensions and injuries, carries 3 goalkeepers yet has only used 1, and has seen the least amount of substitutions of any club.

A lot of credit will rightfully be placed on Liga BBVA MX veteran Francisco Acuña’s impact, but one man does not make a team. For Mista to step into this situation with hardly a team, not have the Atlético loanees that everyone figured would be available, and see this kind of success, what does that say about the management standard of the league? Having an international influence from the likes of Mista and Kah can only help long-term.

In their two losses, Cavalry have given up a goal and then surrendered the second after less than 4 minutes. Is this down to a lack of concentration, an over-urgency to restore parity (consider the Pacific game, where they actually managed to score a disallowed goal within that 4 minute period), or something else? In any case, opponents now see a clear vulnerability and won’t be taking their foot off the gas after one goal. It’ll be interesting to see how Tommy addresses this.

How the hell did Matthew Baldisimo hit the crossbar on that chance from about a yard out???

Game(week) 7 Preview

Forge vs Valour

This one kicks it off today, and that’s probably for the best as it’ll get the U-21 minutes conversation over with, however it resolves itself. Valour have the most long-shot chance of moving on, and will need both a win and for other results to go their way. Forge have already clinched, but will likely see minimal squad rotation aside from what’s necessary - they’ve had a full week’s rest, and it’s just not the way Smyrniotis seems to operate. Valour had a red-card to Federico Peña rescinded, so he’ll be available at fullback, and Gale’s big decision will be who to start with up front, with Austin Ricci likely preferred to Shaan Hundal. Despite some significant improvements for the Winnipeg club in PEI, this will likely be the end of the road.

Cavalry vs York9

For many, this is the marquee matchup of the weekend, and the result here will inform the qualification scenarios for the teams playing Sunday. Cavs come into this one on the back of their first two-game losing streak since last year’s final. They’ve had some strong performances in Charlottetown, but have also lacked something - owing a lot to injuries and stranded internationals. In this vein, we’re hoping to see more of Jair Córdova today. Despite their losing streak, they’ve set themselves up in a decent position, and a win or draw today will see them through. York have also had a middle-of-the-road type of campaign, despite being the only undefeated team, and are also still in need of a result here. They’ve had similar injury problems, but did finally see new signing Chris Mannella make his debut off the bench last game. Goals from open play have been hard to come by, and Manny Aparicio’s free kicks have been the main source of offense lately. Against a side known for its “physical” nature, this could come in handy again today.

Halifax vs Ottawa

Probably the most compelling match of the weekend sees two surprise performers meet for the first time (Ottawa’s last ‘first time’!). Halifax are currently one point up in the standings, and have a +3 goal differential that could come in handy as a tiebreaker, particularly if results leave them tied with York. Top striker Morelli is serving the last game of his suspension, but his absence allows Hart to go with his preferred midfield three of Rampersad, Sissoko and LBG. For Ottawa, Mista has been consistent with his selection throughout the year, with some rotation among the non-Acuña midfielders, and Jarrod Phillips and Vashon Neufville sharing time at leftback. This is a tough one to call, but we’re expecting Halifax to come out on top and move on to the next round.

Pacific vs Edmonton

Last but not least, Pacific have as close to a guaranteed 3 points as there is at this stage, and this will push them through to the next round. We were expecting the Eddies to leave a bit of pride out on the pitch last go-around against York and that didn’t happen, so we don’t see it happening in this one either, with Pacific needing a result. Kah’s front 3 of Díaz, Blasco and Bustos has been running things lately (whatever happened to Terran Campbell?), and since Callum Irving has come in the Vancouver Island side has been climbing the table. For the Eddies, there was a positive last match with top defender Amer Đidić returning from an early injury, and hopefully he’ll get a full game tomorrow. Other than that, hopefully Paulus gives the young lads a run out with an eye on the club’s future.

Predictions

Bet365 has graced us on the last day of the round robin with odds for all games this weekend, and if you like underdogs, there’s some money to be made!

Usually, we’re right in there with those underdog odds, but with so much at stake for some teams, we’re keeping it conservative for this one. Still, some of the favourites’ odds are pretty solid - we especially like Pacific and Halifax at 1.90 and 2.10 odds respectively. On the cheeky punt side of things, if you think Cavalry’s losing streak continues, jump on those 4.33 odds for York! The same goes for Valour against a Forge side that’s already clinched. Hell, I might throw a couple bucks on those two, so I have some consolation if Cavs are knocked out!

Thanks again for reading! Leave us a comment, and check back in a few days for a preview of the second round robin.